Melquizael Costa vs Steve Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-8-0Record19-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Steve Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Melquizael Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1694
If they lose-11→ 1670
If they win+11→ 1734
If they lose-13→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melquizael CostaSteve Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Garcia59%
Melquizael Costa 41%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Garcia a 59% favorite over Melquizael Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Steve Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1681, a 42-point edge.
Melquizael Costa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Steve Garcia 79%.
Melquizael Costa and Steve Garcia share 1 common opponent: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.
Steve Garcia carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.