Melvin Guillard vs Michael Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-22-2Record24-20-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Michael Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1524
If they lose-9→ 1500
If they win+9→ 1621
If they lose-15→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Melvin GuillardMichael Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Johnson70%
Melvin Guillard 30%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 70% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Michael Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1509, a 103-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.