Melvin Guillard vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-22-2Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1538
If they lose-7→ 1514
If they win+7→ 1681
If they lose-17→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz81%
Melvin Guillard 19%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 81% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1521, a 153-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.