Melvin Guillard vs Nathan Trepagnier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-22-2Record5-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
170 lbsWeight160 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1523
If they lose-12→ 1499
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Melvin GuillardNathan Trepagnier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier52%
Melvin Guillard 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 52% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melvin Guillard's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1511 vs 1505), separated by just 6 points.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.