Melvin Guillard vs Shane Roller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-22-2Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamTeam Takedown
What's at stake
Shane Roller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-8→ 1513
If they win+11→ 1647
If they lose-21→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Melvin GuillardShane Roller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Roller72%
Melvin Guillard 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Roller a 72% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Shane Roller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1521, a 115-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Melvin Guillard finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Shane Roller 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.