Combat Edge Intelligence

Merab Dvalishvili vs Ricky Simón

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-5-0Record22-7-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Portland

What's at stake

Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ricky Simón carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Merab DvalishviliNow 1843
If they win+8→ 1851
If they lose-16→ 1827
Ricky SimónNow 1734
If they win+16→ 1750
If they lose-8→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1789 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1711 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
42%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
54%
Strike defense
61%
5.97
Takedown avg.
4.66
5%
Takedown accuracy
42%
76%
Takedown defense
77%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Merab DvalishviliRicky Simón
175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (14%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
2 (10%)
Submission
4 (18%)
16 (76%)
Decision
11 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Merab Dvalishvili70%
Ricky Simón 30%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 70% favorite over Ricky Simón in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1734, a 109-point edge.

Merab Dvalishvili finishes 24% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Simón 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.