Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Umar Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1854
If they lose-13→ 1830
If they win+17→ 1839
If they lose-15→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1788 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Merab DvalishviliUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov65%
Merab Dvalishvili 35%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 65% favorite over Merab Dvalishvili in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Merab Dvalishvili's way (47%).
Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1822, a 21-point edge.
Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Merab Dvalishvili finishes 24% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov share 1 common opponent: Cory Sandhagen.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.