Combat Edge Intelligence

Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Modestas Bukauskas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record20-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Akademia Sportow Walki WilanowTeamGintas Combat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Michał OleksiejczukNow 1705
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-12→ 1693
Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.85
Sig. strikes / min
3.24
53%
Strike accuracy
43%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.05
60%
Strike defense
51%
1.02
Takedown avg.
0.26
42%
Takedown accuracy
67%
53%
Takedown defense
79%
0
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Michał OleksiejczukModestas Bukauskas
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (73%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (15%)
5 (23%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Michał Oleksiejczuk and Modestas Bukauskas within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1707), separated by just 2 points.

Michał Oleksiejczuk finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 70%.

Modestas Bukauskas carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.