Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Modestas Bukauskas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record21-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michał Oleksiejczuk carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1710
If they lose-11→ 1686
If they win+11→ 1735
If they lose-13→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1696 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Michał OleksiejczukModestas Bukauskas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michał Oleksiejczuk58%
Modestas Bukauskas 42%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Michał Oleksiejczuk a 58% favorite over Modestas Bukauskas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Modestas Bukauskas's way (46%).
Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1697, a 27-point edge.
Modestas Bukauskas enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Michał Oleksiejczuk finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 71%.
Modestas Bukauskas carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.