Michael Chiesa vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'8"
75"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1768
If they lose-14→ 1744
If they win+14→ 1728
If they lose-10→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChiesaRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa79%
Rafael dos Anjos 21%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 79% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1714, a 44-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Michael Chiesa and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Michael Chiesa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.