Michael Chiesa vs Sean Brady
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record19-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
75"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
SikjitsuTeamRenzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Sean Brady is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Michael Chiesa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1772
If they lose-10→ 1748
If they win+14→ 1821
If they lose-18→ 1789
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChiesaSean Brady
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Brady70%
Michael Chiesa 30%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Brady a 70% favorite over Michael Chiesa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Sean Brady holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1758, a 49-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Sean Brady 47%.
Michael Chiesa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.