Michael Chiesa vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
SikjitsuTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1767
If they lose-15→ 1743
If they win+15→ 1674
If they lose-9→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChiesaTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa88%
Tony Ferguson 12%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 88% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1659, a 99-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.