Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record24-12-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
75"Reach75″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
SikjitsuTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Vicente Luque carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1769
If they lose-13→ 1745
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChiesaVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa60%
Vicente Luque 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 60% favorite over Vicente Luque in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1723, a 35-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque share 2 common opponents: Kevin Holland and Rafael dos Anjos.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.