Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Diaz vs Sascha Weinpolter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-2-0Record14-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReach-
265 lbsWeight240 lbs
TBDTeamIron Fist Gym

What's at stake

Sascha Weinpolter is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Michael Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michael DiazNow 1474
If they win+26→ 1500
If they lose-22→ 1452
Sascha WeinpolterNow 1509
If they win+22→ 1531
If they lose-26→ 1483

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Michael DiazSascha Weinpolter
1500200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (100%)
KO/TKO
13 (93%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sascha Weinpolter78%
Michael Diaz 22%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Sascha Weinpolter a 78% favorite over Michael Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Sascha Weinpolter holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1509 to 1474, a 35-point edge.

Sascha Weinpolter 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.