Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Johnson vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-20-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.28
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
40%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
59%
Strike defense
53%
0.58
Takedown avg.
1.05
39%
Takedown accuracy
31%
81%
Takedown defense
42%
0.04
Submission avg.
1.29

Trajectory

Michael JohnsonNate Diaz
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (42%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
2 (8%)
Submission
12 (57%)
12 (50%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz60%
Michael Johnson 40%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 60% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1613, a 61-point edge.

Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Nate Diaz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.