Michael Johnson vs Ottman Azaitar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-20-0Record13-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamJupps Fight Team
What's at stake
Ottman Azaitar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
If they win+14→ 1678
If they lose-18→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael JohnsonOttman Azaitar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ottman Azaitar56%
Michael Johnson 44%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Ottman Azaitar a 56% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Ottman Azaitar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1613, a 51-point edge.
Ottman Azaitar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ottman Azaitar 92%.
Michael Johnson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.