Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Paul Sass

Paul Sass

“Sassangle”

14-2-0LightweightBFC

1682Good

Tale of the tape

24-20-0Record14-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'1"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Kaobon

What's at stake

Paul Sass is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
Paul SassNow 1682
If they win+13→ 1695
If they lose-19→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.28
Sig. strikes / min
0.53
40%
Strike accuracy
26%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.90
59%
Strike defense
52%
0.58
Takedown avg.
0.53
39%
Takedown accuracy
17%
81%
Takedown defense
33%
0.04
Submission avg.
7.38

Trajectory

Michael JohnsonPaul Sass
160016501700201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (42%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (8%)
Submission
13 (93%)
12 (50%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Paul Sass63%
Michael Johnson 37%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Paul Sass a 63% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Paul Sass holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1613, a 69-point edge.

Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Paul Sass 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.