Michael Johnson vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-20-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael JohnsonRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Alves58%
Michael Johnson 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Alves a 58% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Johnson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1613), separated by just 0 points.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Michael Johnson and Rafael Alves share 2 common opponents: Drew Dober and Marc Diakiese.
Michael Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.