Michael Johnson vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-20-0Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
Stevie Ray is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1626
If they lose-11→ 1602
If they win+15→ 1659
If they lose-17→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael JohnsonStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stevie Ray59%
Michael Johnson 41%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Stevie Ray a 59% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Stevie Ray holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1613, a 31-point edge.
Stevie Ray enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Johnson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.