Combat Edge Intelligence

Michael Kuiper vs Rafael Natal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team TopfighterTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Michael Kuiper carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michael KuiperNow 1558
If they win+21→ 1579
If they lose-11→ 1547
Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+8→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.28
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
55%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
54%
Strike defense
58%
2.30
Takedown avg.
2.55
56%
Takedown accuracy
34%
79%
Takedown defense
77%
0
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Michael KuiperRafael Natal
15501600165017002015201620172018

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
5 (33%)
Submission
8 (38%)
1 (7%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Michael Kuiper and Rafael Natal within a point of even.

Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1558, a 115-point edge.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Michael Kuiper finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.