Michael McDonald vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-4-0Record34-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70,0"Reach70"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Last Stand Fight TeamTeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1745
If they lose-22→ 1713
If they win+22→ 1620
If they lose-10→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael McDonaldRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael McDonald84%
Renan Barão 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 84% favorite over Renan Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1598, a 137-point edge.
Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Michael McDonald finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.