Michael McDonald vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-4-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70,0"Reach68"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Last Stand Fight TeamTeamFreelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
If they win+16→ 1705
If they lose-16→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Michael McDonaldRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael McDonald54%
Rinya Nakamura 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 54% favorite over Rinya Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1689), separated by just 2 points.
Michael McDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael McDonald finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Michael McDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.