Combat Edge Intelligence

Michel Pereira vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record30-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73"Reach73″
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Overcome AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michel Pereira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michel PereiraNow 1692
If they win+13→ 1705
If they lose-11→ 1681
Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1712
If they win+11→ 1723
If they lose-13→ 1699

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1701 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.46
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
52%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
51%
Strike defense
62%
1.21
Takedown avg.
0.60
57%
Takedown accuracy
27%
76%
Takedown defense
71%
0.65
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Michel PereiraSantiago Ponzinibbio
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (34%)
KO/TKO
17 (57%)
9 (28%)
Submission
6 (20%)
12 (38%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Michel Pereira60%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 40%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Michel Pereira a 60% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Santiago Ponzinibbio's way (47%).

Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1692, a 20-point edge.

Michel Pereira finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.