Combat Edge Intelligence

Michel Pereira vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record14-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'11"
73"Reach68"
186 lbsWeight145 lbs
Overcome AcademyTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

Michel Pereira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tristan Connelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Michel PereiraNow 1695
If they win+9→ 1704
If they lose-15→ 1680
Tristan ConnellyNow 1598
If they win+20→ 1618
If they lose-12→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1701 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.46
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
52%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
51%
Strike defense
51%
1.21
Takedown avg.
0.33
57%
Takedown accuracy
14%
76%
Takedown defense
60%
0.65
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Michel PereiraTristan Connelly
160016501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (34%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
9 (28%)
Submission
9 (64%)
12 (38%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Michel Pereira79%
Tristan Connelly 21%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Michel Pereira a 79% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Michel Pereira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1598, a 97-point edge.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Michel Pereira finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Michel Pereira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.