Mickael Lebout vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-12-2Record14-7-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
ObyfightTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Sergio Moraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mickael Lebout carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1618
If they lose-11→ 1594
If they win+14→ 1655
If they lose-18→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mickael LeboutSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mickael Lebout54%
Sergio Moraes 46%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Mickael Lebout a 54% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sergio Moraes's way (45%).
Sergio Moraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1605, a 36-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mickael Lebout finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.