Combat Edge Intelligence

Mickael Lebout vs Stevie Ray

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Stevie Ray

Stevie Ray

“Braveheart”

26-13-0WelterweightPFL

1644Solid

Tale of the tape

23-12-2Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
ObyfightTeamHigher Level MMA

What's at stake

Stevie Ray is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mickael Lebout carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mickael LeboutNow 1605
If they win+13→ 1618
If they lose-11→ 1594
Stevie RayNow 1644
If they win+14→ 1658
If they lose-18→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.60
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
35%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.93
54%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
0.75
0%
Takedown accuracy
46%
60%
Takedown defense
56%
0
Submission avg.
0.62

Trajectory

Mickael LeboutStevie Ray
16001650202120222023

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
6 (23%)
8 (35%)
Submission
10 (38%)
13 (57%)
Decision
10 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Stevie Ray70%
Mickael Lebout 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Stevie Ray a 70% favorite over Mickael Lebout in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Stevie Ray holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1605, a 39-point edge.

Stevie Ray enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mickael Lebout finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.