Miguel Baeza vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record30-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
74"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Miguel Baeza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1637
If they win+10→ 1708
If they lose-14→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Miguel BaezaSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Santiago Ponzinibbio73%
Miguel Baeza 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 73% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1651, a 47-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.