Miguel Baeza vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
74"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Miguel Baeza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1670
If they lose-13→ 1638
If they win+10→ 1722
If they lose-14→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Miguel BaezaSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Santiago Ponzinibbio70%
Miguel Baeza 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 70% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1651, a 61-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.