Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record15-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
74"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA MastersTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Miguel Baeza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Takashi Sato carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-19→ 1632
If they win+14→ 1593
If they lose-10→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Miguel BaezaTakashi Sato
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miguel Baeza66%
Takashi Sato 34%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Miguel Baeza a 66% favorite over Takashi Sato in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Miguel Baeza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1579, a 72-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Takashi Sato enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Takashi Sato 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.