Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Breeden vs Natan Levy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Natan Levy
il

Natan Levy

“Lethal”

8-2-0LightweightUFC

1635Solid

Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record8-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70"Reach71"
160 lbsWeight157 lbs
Marathon MMATeamSyndicate MMA

What's at stake

Natan Levy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mike Breeden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike BreedenNow 1604
If they win+17→ 1621
If they lose-15→ 1589
Natan LevyNow 1635
If they win+15→ 1650
If they lose-17→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.75
Sig. strikes / min
3.70
45%
Strike accuracy
52%
7.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.19
43%
Strike defense
59%
0.98
Takedown avg.
5.03
30%
Takedown accuracy
58%
68%
Takedown defense
41%
0
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Mike BreedenNatan Levy
160016502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (82%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (38%)
2 (18%)
Decision
5 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Natan Levy67%
Mike Breeden 33%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Natan Levy a 67% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Natan Levy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1604, a 31-point edge.

Mike Breeden finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Natan Levy 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.