Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Breeden vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record18-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
Marathon MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

Terrance McKinney is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mike Breeden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike BreedenNow 1604
If they win+19→ 1623
If they lose-13→ 1591
Terrance McKinneyNow 1662
If they win+10→ 1672
If they lose-14→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.75
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
45%
Strike accuracy
56%
7.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
43%
Strike defense
43%
0.98
Takedown avg.
3.31
30%
Takedown accuracy
0%
68%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Mike BreedenTerrance McKinney
16001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (82%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (50%)
2 (18%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney70%
Mike Breeden 30%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 70% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Terrance McKinney holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1604, a 58-point edge.

Mike Breeden finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.