Mike Brown vs Tom Pagliarulo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-9-0Record11-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height6'0"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamNew England Cartel· 1665 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mike BrownTom Pagliarulo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Pagliarulo80%
Mike Brown 20%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Pagliarulo a 80% favorite over Mike Brown in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Brown's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1669), separated by just 0 points.
Tom Pagliarulo enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Mike Brown finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Tom Pagliarulo 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.