Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs Modestas Bukauskas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-4-0Record20-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReach78"
204 lbsWeight205 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamGintas Combat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike CiesnoleviczNow 1704
If they win+16→ 1720
If they lose-16→ 1688
Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.51
Sig. strikes / min
3.24
50%
Strike accuracy
43%
4.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.05
58%
Strike defense
51%
0
Takedown avg.
0.26
0%
Takedown accuracy
67%
20%
Takedown defense
79%
5.13
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Mike CiesnoleviczModestas Bukauskas
16501700200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (32%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
8 (42%)
Submission
3 (15%)
5 (26%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Modestas Bukauskas70%
Mike Ciesnolevicz 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 70% favorite over Mike Ciesnolevicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1704 vs 1707), separated by just 3 points.

Mike Ciesnolevicz enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Mike Ciesnolevicz finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.