Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Graves vs Nick Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-2Record38-14-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71" ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamMinnesota Martial Arts Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike GravesNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Nick ThompsonNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.25
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
54%
Strike accuracy
44%
1.47
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.58
59%
Strike defense
50%
4.80
Takedown avg.
1.52
0%
Takedown accuracy
100%
67%
Takedown defense
36%
0.40
Submission avg.
2.28

Trajectory

Mike GravesNick Thompson
165017001750200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
14 (37%)
3 (27%)
Submission
18 (47%)
3 (27%)
Decision
6 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves88%
Nick Thompson 12%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 88% favorite over Nick Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Nick Thompson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Mike Graves finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nick Thompson 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.