Mike Graves vs Randy Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-2Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'3"
71" Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBudokan Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
Randy Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mike Graves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1670
If they win+10→ 1752
If they lose-14→ 1728
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mike GravesRandy Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown72%
Mike Graves 28%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 72% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Randy Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1683, a 59-point edge.
Mike Graves enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mike Graves finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Randy Brown carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.