Mike Guymon vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-1Record23-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach76.00
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Joker's MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Mike Guymon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1551
If they lose-8→ 1519
If they win+6→ 1731
If they lose-18→ 1707
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mike GuymonRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald90%
Mike Guymon 10%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 90% favorite over Mike Guymon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1527, a 198-point edge.
Mike Guymon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mike Guymon finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.