Mike Kyle vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-19-1Record13-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
TBDReach41,0"
220 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Rafael Cavalcante is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Mike Kyle carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1570
If they lose-9→ 1546
If they win+13→ 1644
If they lose-19→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mike KyleRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Cavalcante57%
Mike Kyle 43%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Cavalcante a 57% favorite over Mike Kyle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Rafael Cavalcante holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1555, a 76-point edge.
Mike Kyle enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mike Kyle finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.