Mike Nickels vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-5-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
204 lbsWeight205 lbs
Colorado Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Stephan Bonnar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mike Nickels carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1593
If they lose-14→ 1561
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-18→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mike NickelsStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephan Bonnar74%
Mike Nickels 26%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephan Bonnar a 74% favorite over Mike Nickels in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Stephan Bonnar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1575, a 38-point edge.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mike Nickels finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.