Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Polchlopek vs Roggers Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-1-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
TeamAlcateia MMA

What's at stake

Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mike Polchlopek carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike PolchlopekNow 1515
If they win+25→ 1540
If they lose-23→ 1492
Roggers SouzaNow 1530
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-17→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1631 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Mike PolchlopekRoggers Souza
15001550160020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (100%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Polchlopek52%
Roggers Souza 48%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Polchlopek a 52% favorite over Roggers Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roggers Souza's way (48%).

Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1515, a 15-point edge.

Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Roggers Souza 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.