Mike Rio vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Zen Jiu-JitsuTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Tony Ferguson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Mike Rio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1589
If they lose-12→ 1557
If they win+9→ 1668
If they lose-15→ 1644
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mike RioTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson67%
Mike Rio 33%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 67% favorite over Mike Rio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Tony Ferguson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1569, a 90-point edge.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Mike Rio finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.