Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Stumpf vs Takashi Sato

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record15-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CurranTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike StumpfNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563
Takashi SatoNow 1579
If they win+12→ 1591
If they lose-12→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.34
Sig. strikes / min
2.21
43%
Strike accuracy
42%
8.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.73
47%
Strike defense
44%
1.59
Takedown avg.
0.76
25%
Takedown accuracy
38%
33%
Takedown defense
61%
0.80
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mike StumpfTakashi Sato
1600165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
7 (64%)
Submission
2 (13%)
2 (18%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Stumpf52%
Takashi Sato 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Stumpf a 52% favorite over Takashi Sato in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1579 vs 1579), separated by just 0 points.

Mike Stumpf enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Takashi Sato enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Mike Stumpf finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Takashi Sato 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.