Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Stumpf vs TJ Waldburger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CurranTeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike StumpfNow 1579
If they win+17→ 1596
If they lose-15→ 1564
TJ WaldburgerNow 1592
If they win+15→ 1607
If they lose-17→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.34
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
43%
Strike accuracy
51%
8.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.39
47%
Strike defense
40%
1.59
Takedown avg.
3.03
25%
Takedown accuracy
46%
33%
Takedown defense
40%
0.80
Submission avg.
4.79

Trajectory

Mike StumpfTJ Waldburger
15501600201220132014

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
7 (64%)
Submission
13 (81%)
2 (18%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

TJ Waldburger56%
Mike Stumpf 44%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes TJ Waldburger a 56% favorite over Mike Stumpf in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1579 vs 1592), separated by just 13 points.

Mike Stumpf enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Stumpf finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.