Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mike Swick
us

Mike Swick

“Quick”

15-6-0WelterweightUFC

1698Good

Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
AKA ThailandTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Mike Swick is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike SwickNow 1698
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-21→ 1677
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+15→ 1610
If they lose-9→ 1586

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.36
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
38%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
54%
Strike defense
64%
1.06
Takedown avg.
1.42
50%
Takedown accuracy
32%
62%
Takedown defense
64%
0.64
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Mike SwickPaulo Thiago
16001650170017502013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (53%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
3 (20%)
Submission
10 (53%)
4 (27%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Swick71%
Paulo Thiago 29%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Swick a 71% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Mike Swick holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1595, a 103-point edge.

Mike Swick enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Swick finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.