Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Van Arsdale vs Renato Sobral

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record37-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamBabalu's Iron Gym

What's at stake

Renato Sobral is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Mike Van Arsdale carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mike Van ArsdaleNow 1560
If they win+22→ 1582
If they lose-10→ 1550
Renato SobralNow 1687
If they win+8→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.52
Sig. strikes / min
2.01
41%
Strike accuracy
52%
1.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
42%
Strike defense
58%
1.06
Takedown avg.
2.97
14%
Takedown accuracy
67%
38%
Takedown defense
65%
0
Submission avg.
3.16

Trajectory

Mike Van ArsdaleRenato Sobral
15501600165017002004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
9 (24%)
4 (50%)
Submission
15 (41%)
1 (13%)
Decision
13 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Renato Sobral72%
Mike Van Arsdale 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Renato Sobral a 72% favorite over Mike Van Arsdale in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Renato Sobral holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1560, a 127-point edge.

Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Renato Sobral enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Van Arsdale finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Renato Sobral 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.