Combat Edge Intelligence

Mike Whitehead vs Modestas Bukauskas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-8-0Record20-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReach78"
261 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGintas Combat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mike WhiteheadNow 1703
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691
Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.32
Sig. strikes / min
3.24
37%
Strike accuracy
43%
6.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.05
59%
Strike defense
51%
4.95
Takedown avg.
0.26
47%
Takedown accuracy
67%
78%
Takedown defense
79%
0
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Mike WhiteheadModestas Bukauskas
1650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (33%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
12 (44%)
Submission
3 (15%)
6 (22%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Modestas Bukauskas72%
Mike Whitehead 28%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 72% favorite over Mike Whitehead in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1707), separated by just 4 points.

Mike Whitehead finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.