Mikhail Dolgov vs Thiago Hayne
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-10-0Record10-6-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
187 lbsWeight185 lbs
Evolve GymTeamTata Fight Team· 1521 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mikhail DolgovThiago Hayne
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mikhail Dolgov61%
Thiago Hayne 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mikhail Dolgov a 61% favorite over Thiago Hayne in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Hayne's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1536), separated by just 1 points.
Mikhail Dolgov enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mikhail Dolgov finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Hayne 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.