Combat Edge Intelligence

Mikuru Asakura vs Shinya Aoki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Shinya Aoki
jp

Shinya Aoki

“Tobikan Judan”

49-13-0LightweightRFF

1766Great

Tale of the tape

20-6-0Record49-13-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight154 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1663 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamParaestra Tokyo

What's at stake

Shinya Aoki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mikuru Asakura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mikuru AsakuraNow 1717
If they win+14→ 1731
If they lose-10→ 1707
Shinya AokiNow 1766
If they win+10→ 1776
If they lose-14→ 1752

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

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Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Mikuru AsakuraShinya Aoki
17001750180020252026

Win method breakdown

10 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (9%)
1 (5%)
Submission
32 (68%)
9 (45%)
Decision
11 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Mikuru Asakura58%
Shinya Aoki 42%Elo baseline: 43%

The Combat Edge model makes Mikuru Asakura a 58% favorite over Shinya Aoki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shinya Aoki's way (43%).

Shinya Aoki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1717, a 49-point edge.

Shinya Aoki enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mikuru Asakura finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Shinya Aoki 77%.

Shinya Aoki carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.