Miloš Janičić vs Noah Gugnon
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Miloš Janičić64%
Noah Gugnon 36%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Miloš Janičić a 64% favorite over Noah Gugnon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Miloš Janičić holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1657, a 32-point edge.
Miloš Janičić finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Noah Gugnon 100%.
Miloš Janičić carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
19-4-0Record10-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72.4"Reach68"
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
UFD GymTeamBulgarian Top Team· 1590 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Miloš Janičić is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Noah Gugnon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1704
If they lose-17→ 1672
If they win+17→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1642
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Miloš JaničićNoah Gugnon