Minoru Toyonaga vs Sam Fournier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-5-0Record2-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'5"
TBDReach-
195 lbsWeight205 lbs
Takada DojoTeam
What's at stake
Sam Fournier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Minoru Toyonaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1467
If they lose-23→ 1419
If they win+23→ 1483
If they lose-25→ 1435
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1489 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Minoru ToyonagaSam Fournier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Fournier56%
Minoru Toyonaga 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Fournier a 56% favorite over Minoru Toyonaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Sam Fournier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1460 to 1442, a 18-point edge.
Minoru Toyonaga enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sam Fournier enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.