Mitch Gagnon vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record34-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
65,5"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Troop MMATeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Mitch Gagnon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-18→ 1613
If they win+18→ 1616
If they lose-14→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mitch GagnonRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mitch Gagnon and Renan Barão within a point of even.
Mitch Gagnon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1598, a 33-point edge.
Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Mitch Gagnon finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Renan Barão carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.