Combat Edge Intelligence

Mitch Gagnon vs Tim Gorman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tim Gorman
us

Tim Gorman

“The Psycho”

9-4-0BantamweightMCC

1609Solid

Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
65,5"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Troop MMATeamDes Moines MMA Academy

What's at stake

Mitch Gagnon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tim Gorman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-17→ 1614
Tim GormanNow 1609
If they win+17→ 1626
If they lose-15→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.76
Sig. strikes / min
2.73
46%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.57
62%
Strike defense
47%
1.16
Takedown avg.
1
25%
Takedown accuracy
10%
66%
Takedown defense
33%
1.93
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mitch GagnonTim Gorman
160016502013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
10 (83%)
Submission
2 (22%)
1 (8%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Mitch Gagnon54%
Tim Gorman 46%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Gagnon a 54% favorite over Tim Gorman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Mitch Gagnon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1609, a 22-point edge.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mitch Gagnon finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tim Gorman 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.