Mizuto Hirota vs Ross Pearson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-11-2Record20-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67,5"Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
CaveTeamCentral Coast MMA
What's at stake
Mizuto Hirota is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ross Pearson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1632
If they lose-14→ 1608
If they win+14→ 1587
If they lose-10→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mizuto HirotaRoss Pearson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ross Pearson66%
Mizuto Hirota 34%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Ross Pearson a 66% favorite over Mizuto Hirota in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mizuto Hirota's way (43%).
Mizuto Hirota holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1622 to 1573, a 49-point edge.
Mizuto Hirota enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ross Pearson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mizuto Hirota finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Ross Pearson 60%.
Ross Pearson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.